There have been some dark signs about the prospects for global international conflict over the next ten years. Without getting into details, the war in Ukraine is not going well for NATO, and there are signs that the leaders of those states are not prepared to eat humble pie in order to make genuine peace. I suspect they do not know how to make peace; the USA certainly has not done so since 1990. But the realisation that things are not going well is beginning to break through. For example, a former British military officer has articulated in The Telegraph the fear that Ukraine and the West face the prospect of humiliating defeat.
However, is this good news? Might it provoke a desperate gamble, an opting decision, by Western leaders to preserve their idea of themselves? I think we have entered a period of global conflict that will last years, and will carry the risk of catastrophic miscalculation. I do not expect the West to win; this is a situation assessment, not a desire. One brief piece of justification comes from the excellent Simplicius the Thinker. In his most recent post, he wrote:
My prediction is the following: there are huge tectonic shifts currently underway for which the Ukrainian war serves only as a surface level symbolic playing field. The true play happening beneath the surface are the major moves that BRICS are making…. Should these things continue to develop down this path, it brings an existential crisis to the U.S. and the entire Western banking hegemony which uses the fiat spell as their last grasp over their vassals of the world. They absolutely cannot allow this, which means that the closer that Russia brings the world towards either de-dollarization or some sort of global currency bifurcation, then the more the U.S./UK deepstate will push the world toward a great reset ‘war’, which will presumably start as a continental European war.
The prospect of a great reset war is alarming, but by no means improbable. Incidentally, Bloomberg has also reported that the dollar system is in trouble, so the prospect I discussed on my podcast of an end of the current US reserve currency seems likely. The US war machine cannot go on without this financial weapon. We are in for a long war. A hard rain is gonna fall. Sorry.
Join my free weekly newsletter at jeffrich.substack.com.