On the podcast this week I examined the enormous protests in France caused by President Macron’s changes to the minimum qualifying age for retirement pensions.
There was some material that I could not add because of time to the podcast.
In particular, I think commentary by Thomas Piketty and Emmanuel Todd is of interest.
Emmanuel Todd is of particular interest because he is a demographer, and one key thing demographers do is to advise on pension reforms and how they relate to family and other social systems. It is well worth reading Todd, Lineages of Modernity. I provided a brief review of it here, and this review is also in my book, From the Burning Archive.
Part of problem in France is the failure of the technocratic bureaucratic elite. Todd is scathing about them. Curiously, Vladimir Putin commented on the pension protests in France. Putin himself implemented changes to the pension some time ago, and these changes did more to weaken his support than any stunt by Alexei Navalny and his American and British allies. Putin commented that,
“But there is a big difference between what we did in Russia and how they have proceeded in France. Firstly, we retained the five-year difference in the pension age of women and men. In France there is no such distinction. Second, we set a long time period for the transition – 10 years. This significantly relieves the burden on citizens. And finally, most importantly, we preserved all the privileges of taking retirement early. But in France, as far as I know, they did not do this. They liquidated all such privileges. Citizens of France saw this as excessively tough and unjust, because various forms of labor require different approaches to the question of going on pension.” (Interview with Pavel Zarubin Rossiya 1, News of the Week, 25 March 2023)
The French political crisis shows, in part, the decline in skills of the art of governing that is contributing to the crisis of post-democracy in the West.
Also I had to release the podcast prior to the French Constitutional Court decision on the legality of the reforms. However, this decision will be released shortly, and I will report it here.
** UPDATE ** 15 April 9:30 am AEST
This decision has now been released, overnight Australian time. The Court upheld the legality of the decision. The French Government now has 15 days in which to enact the law. The Government’s intention is the changes to pensions will take effect from 1 September. Some minor elements of the reforms were struck down by the Court. A proposal to the Court by the left-wing opposition that a referendum be held on the law was also rejected by the Court.
So, we are back to resolution of political disputes by politics, not courts. That is, normality outside the USA. The protests will resume. Macron appears determined to press the claims of the people over the rowdy crowd. Le Monde quoted him saying,
“The riot does not prevail over the representatives of the people and the crowd has no legitimacy over the people who express themselves, as sovereigns, through their elected representatives. That must be remembered.”
Unions and some political leaders have vowed to continue the fight. Other leaders have said the only way to change the policies is to change the leadership, but elections are a long way off. Some commentators have speculated whether the powers of Presidency, which the court has affirmed, expose a fundamental failure of the Fifth Republic. Could the pensions protests undo Macron and the Fifth Republic?
We will see over coming weeks and months. My intuition tells me the height of the storm has passed. Macron will serve to the end of his presidency. Opposition will fade. The American Wars will enervate the political leadership and demoralise the public. And the ‘contentious French’ (Charles Tilly’s patronising American term) will withdraw from the streets, and realise they too have lost their democracy. Je suis, Charlie.
Some initial events reacting to the decision suggest trouble is coming….
